Emerald - 2.63ct

Investment Thesis 📝

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1. Strong Return Opportunity Supported by Market Data
This investment targets a 5–7 year holding period, leveraging robust historical data for high-quality colored gemstones.

Balanced Scenario (CAGR 2025–2032):
→ €54,042 | CAGR: 14.2% p.a. (after fees)

Optimistic Scenario:
→ €89,540 | CAGR: 22.7% p.a. (after fees)

The expected net annual ROI is 14.2%, reflecting a 60% probability of achieving the historical average return (12.1% CAGR, 2010–2023), enhanced by a 25% discount to fair value secured through B2B channels. Risk-adjusted return analysis yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.02, indicating a strong excess return for the level of volatility.

2. Risk Profile and Volatility Benchmarking
Risk is modeled using the observed standard deviation of comparable gemstones (2010–2023), multiplied by 1.5x for stress testing, resulting in a conservative 15.2% volatility estimate.
Value at Risk (VaR): There is a 95% probability the asset’s value will exceed the initial capital invested (€20,900) after 5 years, providing meaningful downside protection.

3. Asset Acquired Below Market Value via B2B Channel
The purchase price reflects a 25% discount to fair value, estimated from five benchmark sales of similar gems, adjusted for carat weight. Acquisition below current B2C market value increases the margin for appreciation and mitigates downside risk. Fair value estimation references a Gem Society study indicating Ethiopian emeralds are typically valued on par with Zambian stones, but at a 30% discount to Colombian emeralds.

4. Distinctive Features Enhancing Market Value
This rare, eye-clean Ethiopian emerald features a 2.63ct octagon cut, Gübelin certification, and insignificant clarity enhancement—an exceptionally scarce combination. Its origin from a now-depleted mine and outstanding green color make it highly desirable among collectors seeking unique provenance and top-tier clarity.

Exit Options at Maturity 🚪

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We will manage the exit strategy in collaboration with our expert on behalf of our investors, ensuring the best possible outcome based on market conditions at the time. Depending on the prevailing market situation, the stone will be sold to a private buyer or offered as single lots at a gem-auction. An auction is considered if the price has developed to the point where the minimum bid matches the market value and there is high demand for works by the artist. Both options are carefully considered, and we will choose the one that maximizes the return for our investors.

Why Invest in This Category? 🎨

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Colored gemstones have long captivated investors and collectors alike, offering a unique blend of aesthetic beauty and financial security. Unlike traditional assets, their value is driven by rarity, cultural significance, and increasing global demand. The market for fine emeralds, sapphires, spinel and rubies has seen a steady appreciation, supported by limited supply and growing interest from emerging markets. Unlike diamonds, where synthetic alternatives pose a pricing challenge, top-tier natural colored gemstones maintain strong value retention due to their individuality and limited production. With auction records continuously being set, investing in premium colored gemstones is not just about appreciation—it’s about owning a tangible piece of history with enduring worth.

Why Invest in This Asset? 💎

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Hard-assets rarely marry price advantage with pedigree, yet this octagon-cut emerald does exactly that. Acquired at €18,410—a 25 % B2B discount—it positions buyers far below retail comparables. Gübelin’s certification confirms insignificant clarity enhancement, a level seen in fewer than 5 % of market stones. Its eye-clean interior frames color saturation worthy of Colombian peers, but Ethiopian provenance keeps headline prices tempered—an arbitrage gap experts expect to narrow as supply vanishes.

Measured at 8.12 × 8.02 × 5.95 mm, the gem’s geometry optimizes light return, radiating an electrifying green seldom paired with such clarity. Ethiopia’s Shakiso deposit, discovered in 2016 and now depleted, grants this stone a closed chapter of origin—adding provenance rarity that will only intensify over time.

Comparative market data shows Colombian emeralds of similar grade fetching 30 % premiums; Zambian stones trade roughly on par. Five benchmark sales (2010–2023) anchor a fair value 33 % higher than entry cost, even before adjusting for Ethiopian scarcity. Coupled with zero annual carrying costs and an exit horizon of 2025–2032, the gem balances near-term scarcity catalysts with patient compounding.

Conclusion 🎯

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Locked in a depleted provenance and certified at the rarest clarity grade, this emerald pairs beauty with built-in equity. Discounted entry, compelling CAGR, and a Sharpe of 1.02 create a gemstone poised for both admiration and appreciation.