Kobe Bryant 1999-00 UD Game Jersey Super Patch 1of25 UD1 BGS 8.5

Investment Thesis 📝

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1. Strong Return Opportunity Supported by Market Data
This investment is modeled over a 3–5 year horizon, leveraging historical sales data and recent market trends for high-end Kobe Bryant cards and comparable memorabilia assets.

Balanced Scenario (CAGR, 2025–2030):
→ €186,439 | CAGR: 25.3% p.a.

Optimistic Scenario (CAGR, 2025–2030):
→ €265,502 | CAGR: 37.6% p.a.

The projected net ROI per annum is 25.3%, based on applying 60% of the observed historical growth for the Kobe Bryant index out of extra conservatism—an approach typically reserved for less rare or commodity cards. The investment yields a Sharpe ratio of 0.61, indicating a fair excess return relative to its volatility.

2. Risk Profile and Volatility Benchmarking
Risk modeling applies the volatility observed in the Kobe Bryant index, resulting in a standard deviation of 41.3%.
Based on our Value at Risk (VaR) model, there is a 75% probability that the asset’s value will exceed €69,800 after 5 years, offering robust downside protection relative to initial investment levels.
As a reference, the Kobe Bryant index has experienced a historical maximum drawdown of approximately 70%, underscoring the importance of a long-term investment horizon to navigate periods of market volatility.

3. Entry with Validated Fair Value
The offered price is 3% below the retail benchmark. The less desirable UD2 version is currently valued at €19,000, supporting a 3x premium for this superior UD1 and 1/25 copy. The fair value is further supported by a sample of 78 data points held between 2021 and 2023, providing a competitive entry and margin of safety.

4. Rarity, Exclusivity, and Collector Validation
This card is Kobe Bryant’s very first patch card ever made, serial numbered 1 of 25, and the first 130-point thickness card in hobby history, now the standard for high-end memorabilia cards. Its extreme rarity (with astronomical pack odds, harder than 1 in 5.6 million), title-year provenance, and photomatched action from the 2000 NBA Finals make it a true museum piece. The card is graded BGS 8.5 with 9.5 centering, and its iconic design and historical significance are validated by strong and growing collector demand.

Why Invest in This Category? 🏆

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Sports cards are an asset class that has enjoyed one of the highest multipliers in growth over the last 5 to 15 years among alternative investment vehicles. Sports cards have strong fundamentals in bringing high-valued licenses, age-tested brands, universal passion for sports, and transcendent talents together in innovative concepts.

Why Invest in This Asset? 💎

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The 1999–00 Upper Deck Game Jersey Super Patch UD1 is more than cardboard—it’s the genesis of modern memorabilia cards. As Kobe Bryant’s first-ever patch card, serial-numbered 1 of 25, it carries historic relevance. It’s the first 130-point thickness card in hobby history, establishing the high-end standard still used today. Pulled during Kobe’s first NBA championship season, its rarity is mathematically staggering—estimated to be harder to pull than 1 in 5.6 million packs.

The action shot is photomatched to a Finals moment—a hanging hook against Sabonis—connecting Kobe’s rise to the 2000s Lakers dynasty and the global expansion of the NBA. The BGS 8.5 grade includes a 9.5 centering subgrade, paired with a clean three-color patch layout and striking design symmetry. The patch window, iconic layout, and balance between color blocks create museum-grade aesthetics.

Collectors recognize this card as foundational: it paved the way for Exquisite Auto Patches, now the pinnacle of modern cards. The UD2 version, less desirable, trades around €19,000—supporting a 3x premium for this UD1 version, which hasn't surfaced in three years. Market data confirms growing momentum. With only 25 ever made and this being the very first serial, its scarcity is extreme—making it not just rare, but nearly mythical.

Conclusion 🎯

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Owning this Kobe Super Patch UD1 1/25 is like holding a page from basketball scripture. With a Sharpe ratio of 0.66, balanced growth potential of 25.3% p.a., and unmatched provenance, it offers more than financial return—it offers prestige, history, and rarity few assets can rival.