Palladium Bar, 1000 g
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Main reasons to invest
Return potential📈: An investment of €500 could reach an estimated value of €824 in 5 years.
Cost-to-return ratio ⚖️: After deducting 1.9% in annual total costs, your net return could reach 10.5% per year.
A rare anchor in uncertain times ⚙️: Palladium offers stability when markets feel uncertain. Its scarcity, essential industrial role, and near-zero correlation with traditional assets make it a reliable anchor during volatile periods. Holding a full kilogram of this rare metal gives investors both emotional reassurance and the comfort of owning something tangible, valuable, and globally recognised.
Description
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Investment Horizon | 3-5 Years |
| Expected CAGR (Balanced) | 10.52% p.a. after fees |
| Ambitious CAGR | 16.42% p.a. after fees |
| Entry Basis | fair value |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.36 (vs. SMI: 0.61) |
| Value at Risk (VaR) | 65% chance to exceed €46,800 after 5 years |
| Standard Deviation | 27.3% |
| Risk Rating | B (7.2/10 - Medium Risk) |
- 3–5 year horizon: Matches typical commodity market cycles and allows time for supply tightening, demand resilience, and macro-driven repricing.
- 10.52% CAGR (balanced): Based on an 85% probability of repeating blended historical returns across three major palladium regimes (1990–2025, 2016–2021, 2009–2025).
- 16.42% CAGR (optimistic): Reflects past bull-market dynamics driven by supply constraints and strong industrial demand.
- Fair entry point: €46,800 accurately reflects the metal’s verified spot value at acquisition.
- Sharpe ratio of 0.36: Consistent with physical commodities that act as long-term stabilisers within diversified portfolios.
- 65% VaR threshold: High likelihood of exceeding €46,800 within five years.
- Standard deviation 27.3%: Typical commodity volatility and aligned with cycles in precious metals.
- Risk rating “B”: Offers portfolio protection, hedge characteristics, and targeted upside through industrial demand drivers.
Precious metals have long been used to preserve value during periods of uncertainty. Palladium stands out within this group due to its combination of scarcity, industrial importance, and historically strong price reactions in supply-tight markets. It is one of the least abundant precious metals and is used across sectors that maintain steady demand even in challenging cycles. Its low correlation with traditional investments adds an additional layer of stability within a diversified portfolio.
- Direct ownership of a physical palladium bar at a fair and verified entry price, offering a simple way to access a scarce and industrially important metal.
- Strong and steady demand driven by palladium’s key role in catalytic converters, electronics, chemical processes, and emerging hydrogen technologies.
- Structurally limited supply with production concentrated in a few regions, which supports long-term price strength when inventories tighten.
- Near-zero correlation with traditional financial markets, adding diversification and offering protection during periods of market stress.
- Historical performance marked by clear cyclical appreciation during phases of rising industrial demand or constrained supply.
Additional upside factors:
- A slower global shift to electric vehicles could keep gasoline cars on the road longer, supporting ongoing autocatalyst demand.
- Faster adoption of advanced electronics, chemical technologies, or hydrogen fuel solutions could increase palladium consumption and add new pressure to an already limited supply.
The 1kg palladium bar offers a balanced combination of scarcity, industrial relevance, and diversification value. With a fair entry point, a 3–5 year horizon, and a projected 10.5% annual return in the balanced scenario, it provides a clear case for investors seeking protection with upside potential in a structurally constrained metal market.
Expert
philoro is a reliable partner for investing in gold and silver. The company's highest quality standards for its products and comprehensive service have made it one of the market leaders in the precious metals trading sector in Europe.
