Thomas Dillon, Portfolio of two works, 2023/2025

Investment Thesis 📝
 

Metric	Value
Investment Horizon	2–4 years (target exit 2028–2030)
Potential Net ROI p.a. (Balanced)	21.3% p.a.
Potential Net ROI p.a. (Ambitious)	25.0% p.a.
Entry Discount (Pre-Fees)	-19.6% vs. current primary pricing
Sharpe Ratio	0.71 (moderate risk-adjusted return)
Value at Risk (VaR)	92.91% probability to exceed initial investment after 4 years
Standard Deviation	31.0%
Overall Risk Rating	B (7.2 / 10 – Moderate Risk)

 

• 2–4 Year Horizon: Exit window aligned with Thomas Dillon’s accelerating gallery-led career trajectory and increasing institutional exposure.

• 21.3% Net ROI p.a. (Balanced): Based on historical gallery price increases since 2021 and a built-in entry discount to primary market pricing.

• 25.0% Net ROI p.a. (Ambitious): Reflects upside if Dillon’s market continues to reprice following institutional validation and collector demand.

• -19.6% Entry Discount (Pre-Fees): Provides an immediate downside buffer relative to current primary prices for comparable Dillon works.

• Sharpe Ratio of 0.71: Indicates a solid, moderate risk-adjusted return profile typical for high-quality emerging contemporary art.

• 92.91% VaR Protection: Very high probability that the portfolio exceeds invested capital over the planned holding period.

• 31.0% Volatility: Reflects measured price variability consistent with emerging artists under strong gallery representation.

• Risk Rating “B” (7.2/10): Balanced risk profile supported by entry discount, gallery backing, and disciplined primary pricing.

Why Invest in This Category? 🎨

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Investing in art combines cultural relevance, scarcity, and long-term value appreciation into a resilient alternative asset class. The global art market reached over USD 65 billion in annual sales, supported by a deep base of collectors, institutions, and museums. Historically, blue-chip and well-curated contemporary art segments have delivered ~8–10% long-term annual returns, with select emerging artists outperforming during career inflection points. Art benefits from low correlation to traditional markets, tangible ownership, and finite supply—particularly for unique works. Strong gallery representation, exhibition history, and documented provenance further enhance liquidity, price transparency, and downside protection for investors.

Why Invest in This Asset? 💎

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Collectors are drawn to this work because it embodies Thomas Dillon’s artistic language at its most complete and uncompromising. Executed at monumental scale and created as a unique piece, the painting reflects Dillon’s distinctive approach: mining figures and beasts from abstract fields through an intuitive, almost trance-like process. The resulting imagery feels raw, primal, and deeply expressive—qualities that resonate strongly with collectors seeking authenticity rather than decorative appeal.

Dillon’s practice stands out for its immediacy. Thick impasto, aggressive mark-making, and chaotic surfaces give the work a visceral physical presence that is increasingly rare in a market saturated with polished or concept-driven abstraction. This sense of urgency and emotional intensity has led to frequent comparisons with Jean-Michel Basquiat, particularly in the way Dillon works instinctively from a “primal drive,” allowing figures to emerge rather than be planned.

Equally important to collectors is context. Dillon is represented by Shrine in New York, a gallery known for identifying and cultivating emerging artists with strong long-term potential. Shrine’s program has already produced significant secondary-market success, and Dillon’s solo presentation at the Armory Show—an arena typically reserved for established names—signals institutional confidence well ahead of his career stage.
 

Conclusion 🎯

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For collectors, this investment opportubnity is a defining example of Dillon’s vision, created at the largest scale of his career to date and exhibited on an international stage. As with many highly sought-after artists, collectors compete for early, uncompromising works that best encapsulate the artist’s identity—assets that later become reference points as careers mature.