Kylian Mbappe Panini Donruss FIFA Kaboom Black 1of1

Investment Thesis 📝

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1. First All-Black Background Kaboom 1/1 in all sports at Fair-Market Entry Point
This Kaboom Black 1/1 is acquired at €80k, with total platform-adjusted cost at €87.1k — well-positioned against the expert estimated average fair value of €81k–135k and the due diligence fair value of €86.5k based on historical multipliers using comparable.
Key value drivers include:
- First-ever full black background Kaboom 1/1 across all sports, making this a historical milestone in Panini's insert lineage.
- Card #1 in the set, further emphasizing status and narrative primacy.
- PSA 9 grade, highly coveted in 1/1 cards, especially given PSA’s strict standards for ultra-modern grails.

Some comparables include:
- LeBron James 2018 Kaboom Gold /10 BGS 9.5 → €208k
- Tom Brady 2021 Kaboom Green 1/1 PSA 8 → €165k
- Kobe Bryant 2018 Kaboom Gold /10 PSA 10 → €89.4k
- Jayden Daniels 2024 Kaboom Green 1/1 PSA 8 → €81.6k
- Messi 2018 Kaboom Gold /10 PSA 10 → up to €74.3k
- 2022 Kaboom Gold /10 Messi PSA 10 → $50.4k
- Mbappé Kaboom “letter-black” 1/1, considered visually less distinctive → $25.6k
- Market standard multipliers from /10 to 1/1 support this card's upside valuation.

2. Mbappé's Unmatched Athletic Trajectory and Global Influence
Kylian Mbappé is arguably the most marketable and accomplished footballer in his prime, with historic achievements before age 26:
- 12 World Cup goals, 1 WC title, and 2 Finals appearances — outpacing Pelé and Messi in tournament scoring efficiency
- 6x Ligue 1 Top Scorer, 5x Player of the Year, 4x All-UCL Team
- Time 100 honoree and #3 highest-paid athlete globally (Forbes 2023)
- Recently signed with Real Madrid, instantly surpassing Ronaldo’s debut goal

With another World Cup cycle ahead — including the highly visible 2026 edition hosted in North America — the cultural and financial visibility of Mbappé is only set to grow.
His on-field trajectory and off-field brand power provide durable demand and catalyze long-term card appreciation.

3. Valuation: High Upside Backed by VaR Model
Using similar cards from Kaboom historical growth comps and Value at Risk (VaR) approach with a 5 year horizon, we estimate the following outcomes:

- Balanced Scenario: €318.7k in 5 years → CAGR 29.1%
- Ambitious Scenario: €455.2k in 5 years → CAGR 38.6%

In terms of Risk management, the 5% VaR model suggests a price floor above €59.8k with 95% confidence for a period of 5 years — providing asymmetrical upside.
Net of costs, platform fees, and exit fees the expected return remains strong at 29.1% p.a., with a Sharpe ratio of 1.00, placing this card among one of the most attractive mid-term holds in the category.

Exit Options at Maturity 🚪

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We will manage the exit strategy on behalf of our investors, ensuring the best possible outcome based on market conditions at the time. Depending on the prevailing market situation, the card will be sold to a private collector or offered as a single lot at an auction. An auction is considered if the price has developed to the point where the minimum bid matches the market value and there is high demand for Kaboom inserts. Both options are evaluated to secure maximum value.

Why Invest in This Category? 🎨

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Sports cards are an asset class that has enjoyed one of the highest multipliers in growth over the last 5 to 15 years among alternative investment vehicles. Sports cards have strong fundamentals in bringing high-valued licenses, age-tested brands, universal passion for sports, and transcendent talents together in innovative concepts.

Why Invest in This Asset? 💎

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This is not just any 1/1 card—it’s the first all-black background Kaboom 1/1 ever released by Panini across all sports, and Mbappé is card #1 in the set. That means this isn’t only the best of its kind—it’s the origin point of a new visual lineage in collecting. And it features one of the most explosive athletes on earth.

Mbappé is football’s present and future: already a World Cup winner, PSG’s all-time top scorer, and now the new face of Real Madrid. His performance stats are staggering—scoring records, hat tricks in World Cup finals, back-to-back top scorer and assist leader titles, and even Time Magazine’s Top 100. All before turning 27. He’s on track to match or exceed Pelé and Messi in global legacy.

Kaboom inserts are Panini’s most iconic and chased cards, instantly recognizable and deeply rooted in hobby history—combining elements from Jambalaya and Ultra Star Gold. They’re culturally powerful, visually radiant, and already trade in the six-figure range for top-tier parallels. This all-black version doesn’t just pop—it glows with historical symbolism, echoing iconic Ultra all-purple 1/1s from the 90s that transformed the hobby.

PSA 9 on a 1/1 like this? That’s elite. PSA is notoriously strict on flagship cards. Add to that Mbappé’s dominance and the insert’s unmatched lineage, and you have a sealed modern relic, grossly underpriced relative to current and projected comps. In fact, dealer estimates place this card between €108k–€135k, above the current entry price of €81,000—providing immediate built-in upside.

Context in Time ⏳

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Released in 2024 during Mbappé’s explosive Real Madrid debut season and one year ahead of his third World Cup run, this Kaboom Black 1/1 arrives at a pivotal career and cultural moment. It marks a visual innovation in card design and a milestone in Panini history, making it forever collectible.

Conclusion 🎯

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This isn’t just a card—it’s a one-shot fusion of innovation, athletic greatness, and trading card history. From Kaboom’s visual legacy to Mbappé’s global arc, every element aligns for growth. Already underpriced, sealed, and elite-graded, this 1/1 belongs to the future. And right now, it’s available.