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Karuizawa Once in a Lifetime
Asset value
20.200,00 €
Earning potential
14%
Splints left
0/404
Investment horizon in years
6-8
Return-to-Risk Assessment
8/10
Performance since release
+0.0%
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Main reasons to invest
Return potential📈: An investment of €500 could reach an estimated value of €1,424 in 8 years.
Cost-to-return ratio⚖️: With just 1.9% annual total costs, your net profit could be 14.0% per year.
A once-in-history release from Japan’s rarest distillery: This bottle captures a moment that will never return. Drawn from casks spanning four decades and released after the distillery closed forever, “Once in a Lifetime” is more than whisky. It is a piece of cultural memory preserved in glass. For collectors, it represents a final chapter. For investors, it is an irreplaceable asset shaped by heritage, rarity, and time.
Description
Investment Thesis: 📝
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Investment Horizon | 6-8 Years |
| Expected CAGR (Balanced) | 14.0% p.a. after fees |
| Ambitious CAGR | 21.9% p.a. after fees |
| Entry Basis | ≈10.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.80 (vs. SMI: 0.61) |
| Value at Risk (VaR) | 99% chance to exceed €20,200 after 8 years |
| Standard Deviation | 16.7% |
| Risk Rating | A (8.8/10 - Low Risk) |
- 6-8 year horizon: Matches long cycles observed for closed-distillery Japanese whisky and the recovery potential of the Karuizawa Index.
- 14.0% CAGR (balanced): Based on an 80% probability of achieving the 20.1% annual return observed in key 2023–2025 auction results.
- 21.9% CAGR (optimistic): Supported by long-term demand for closed‑distillery stock and the terminal scarcity of this release.
- ≈ 10.4% entry discount: Verified against recent private sales before fees.
- Sharpe ratio 0.80: Strong risk‑adjusted profile versus the SMI five‑year benchmark of 0.61.
- ≈ 99% VaR threshold: High likelihood of exceeding €20,200 within eight years.
- 16.7% standard deviation: Consistent with collectible whisky markets.
- Risk rating “A”: Long‑term resilience supported by extreme rarity and global demand.
Why Invest in This Category?
Collectible whisky has matured into a transparent, data‑driven alternative asset class. Values are supported by rarity, brand prestige, cultural relevance, and limited aged stock. Closed distilleries outperform active producers because supply cannot grow. Top Japanese whiskies have shown strong appreciation across global markets, with collectors in Asia and Europe driving sustained demand. When supply is finite, scarcity becomes the key determinant of long‑term value.
Collectible whisky has matured into a transparent, data‑driven alternative asset class. Values are supported by rarity, brand prestige, cultural relevance, and limited aged stock. Closed distilleries outperform active producers because supply cannot grow. Top Japanese whiskies have shown strong appreciation across global markets, with collectors in Asia and Europe driving sustained demand. When supply is finite, scarcity becomes the key determinant of long‑term value.
Why Invest in This Asset? 💎
The Karuizawa “Once in a Lifetime” bottling marks the final chapter of Japan’s most iconic closed distillery. Created from a vatting of casks spanning the 1960s to 2000, it reflects the full depth of Karuizawa’s flavour profile and is regarded by collectors as a historic tribute to the distillery’s legacy.
Only 145 bottles exist. With no possibility of future production, the supply is permanently fixed. This extreme scarcity contributes to long‑term price stability and supports strong performance at premium auctions. Earlier Karuizawa releases have recorded returns exceeding 900% over seven years, showing how prices can accelerate when global demand rises.
Although the acquisition reflects a modest premium after fees, it remains well supported by the bottle’s rarity, cultural significance, and active cross‑market demand across Asia and Europe. With the Karuizawa Index showing signs of recovery and collectors continuing to prioritise closed‑distillery releases, the medium‑term outlook is favourable.
The 6-8 year horizon allows the market to continue absorbing supply contraction as remaining bottles are consumed or placed into long‑term collections. Combined with its rarity and historical performance, this release offers a defensive profile with meaningful upside potential.
The Karuizawa “Once in a Lifetime” bottling marks the final chapter of Japan’s most iconic closed distillery. Created from a vatting of casks spanning the 1960s to 2000, it reflects the full depth of Karuizawa’s flavour profile and is regarded by collectors as a historic tribute to the distillery’s legacy.
Only 145 bottles exist. With no possibility of future production, the supply is permanently fixed. This extreme scarcity contributes to long‑term price stability and supports strong performance at premium auctions. Earlier Karuizawa releases have recorded returns exceeding 900% over seven years, showing how prices can accelerate when global demand rises.
Although the acquisition reflects a modest premium after fees, it remains well supported by the bottle’s rarity, cultural significance, and active cross‑market demand across Asia and Europe. With the Karuizawa Index showing signs of recovery and collectors continuing to prioritise closed‑distillery releases, the medium‑term outlook is favourable.
The 6-8 year horizon allows the market to continue absorbing supply contraction as remaining bottles are consumed or placed into long‑term collections. Combined with its rarity and historical performance, this release offers a defensive profile with meaningful upside potential.
Conclusion 🎯
The Karuizawa “Once in a Lifetime” is a terminally scarce, culturally significant release from Japan’s most celebrated closed distillery. Its rarity, global demand, and verified entry discount support an attractive 6–8 year horizon. With strong historical performance and near‑total supply depletion, it offers a compelling long‑term opportunity in the blue‑chip whisky segment.
The Karuizawa “Once in a Lifetime” is a terminally scarce, culturally significant release from Japan’s most celebrated closed distillery. Its rarity, global demand, and verified entry discount support an attractive 6–8 year horizon. With strong historical performance and near‑total supply depletion, it offers a compelling long‑term opportunity in the blue‑chip whisky segment.
Expert
Spiritory
Spiritory is an exchange-based live marketplace for whisky and spirits enthusiasts and collectors. The online platform enables users to trade coveted spirits in the simplest, most transparent and secure way possible.
Additional details
Asset ID
7a406ec4-d7af-4246-9650-4dca84d82f6f
Publisher
Number One Drinks Company
Bottle name
Karuizawa Once in a Lifetime
Age
Non-age-statement (NAS)
Origin
Japan Karuizawa Distillery (Nagano Prefecture)
Type
Sherry cask vatting
ABV
49-52%
Bottle no.
One of 145 bottles worldwide (no indivdual numbers)
