David Hockney, Paper Pools – Pools Made with Paper and Blue Ink for Book, 1980

Investment Thesis 📝
 

Metric	Value
Investment Horizon	3–5 Years
Expected CAGR (Balanced)	17.1% p.a. after fees
Optimistic CAGR	22.0% p.a. after fees
Entry Discount	~3.9% vs. gallery prices (Artsy)
Sharpe Ratio	0.82 (vs. SMI: 0.61)
Value at Risk (VaR)	94% chance to exceed €83,600
Standard Deviation	20.0%
Risk Rating	A (8.8/10 – Low Risk)

 

• 3–5 Year Horizon: The holding period is designed to capture continued momentum in Hockney’s Paper Pools market, targeting an exit window between 2028 and 2030 in line with sustained blue-chip print demand and gallery turnover.
• 17.1% CAGR (Balanced): Modeled with an 80% probability of achieving the target return, based on historical auction growth across 44 verified Paper Pools sales between 2017 and 2025.
• 22.0% CAGR (Optimistic): Reflects potential upside from renewed institutional interest and collector focus on Hockney’s pool imagery—among the most sought-after motifs in his oeuvre.
• 3.9% Entry Discount: The €72,500 acquisition price represents a 3.9% discount versus comparable gallery listings on Artsy (£60,000–£85,000), offering a fair and data-validated entry point.
• Sharpe Ratio of 0.82: Indicates a superior risk-adjusted return compared to the SMI’s five-year benchmark (0.61), balancing measured volatility with robust expected performance.
• 94% VaR Threshold: Model forecasts a 94% probability that the asset will exceed €83,600 after five years, confirming strong downside protection and market resilience.
• Standard Deviation (20.0%): Reflects controlled volatility consistent with established blue-chip art benchmarks such as Artprice100, underscoring the asset’s stability.
• Risk Rating “A (8.8/10)”: Blue-chip profile supported by strong liquidity, 44 historical sales, and sustained institutional demand—positioning this work as a stable, data-backed opportunity in contemporary art.

Exit Options at Maturity 🚪

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We will manage the exit strategy in collaboration with our expert Zurani on behalf of our investors, ensuring the best possible outcome based on market conditions at the time. Depending on the prevailing market situation, the painting will be sold to a private collector or offered as a single lot at an auction for contemporary art. An auction is considered if the price has developed to the point where the minimum bid matches the market value and there is high demand for works by the artist. Both options are carefully considered, and we will choose the one that maximizes the return for our investors.

Why Invest in This Category? 🎨

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For centuries, art was collected for its cultural, emotional, intellectual, political, and economic value. Investing in a mid-career artist offers a mix of financial potential and personal satisfaction, making it an appealing option for both new and seasoned collectors.

Why Invest in This Asset? 💎

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This work represents one of the most accessible yet conceptually rich entries into Hockney’s Paper Pools series, which redefined printmaking in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Created during his collaboration with Tyler Graphics in New York, the series used colored paper pulp instead of paint, achieving tactile textures that evoke the play of light across water — a recurring motif in Hockney’s oeuvre.

Pool Made with Paper and Blue Ink for Book translates the essence of Hockney’s pool imagery into a new medium, merging craftsmanship with innovation. Measuring 26.7 × 22.9 cm, this screenprint on Arches Aquarelle wove paper captures the artist’s iconic pool motif that has come to symbolize both the California dream and artistic experimentation.

From an art market perspective, this edition combines aesthetic prestige, liquidity, and a balanced risk-return profile. The painting is coming to market at a 3.9% discount to comparable gallery offerings on Artsy and recent auction results. With over 44 comparable sales between 2017 and 2025, the pricing is based on a well-documented and active secondary market.

Conclusion 🎯

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Paper Pools – Pool Made with Paper and Blue Ink for Book combines iconic subject matter, a strong exhibition record, and proven market demand. With a fair entry price, robust liquidity, and a solid risk-adjusted return profile, it stands as a balanced opportunity within the blue-chip print segment of contemporary art.