Pokémon Aquapolis Booster Box

Investment Thesis 📝
 

Metric	Value
Investment Horizon	4 to 6 Years
Expected CAGR (Balanced)	29.8% p.a.
Optimistic CAGR	42.4% p.a.
Entry Premium	~6% vs. eBay listings
Sharpe Ratio	0.76 (vs. SMI: 0.61)
Value at Risk (VaR)	89% chance to exceed €152,100
Standard Deviation	38.9%
Risk Rating	B (7.2/10 – Moderate Risk)

• 4–6 Year Horizon: Targeted exit between 2029 and 2031 to capitalize on peak collector demand cycles and sustained scarcity of sealed e-Card-era displays.
• 29.8% CAGR (Balanced): Based on 25 % of the 128 % CAGR observed in Aquapolis Pack sales between February and October 2025.
• 42.4% CAGR (Optimistic): Based on 35 % of the 128 % CAGR observed in Aquapolis Pack sales between February and October 2025.
• ~6 % Discount vs. eBay: Validated fair entry point — priced 1.8× above single packs but 6 % below current listings, ensuring cost-efficient acquisition.
• Sharpe Ratio 0.76: Strong risk-adjusted profile outperforming the SMI’s five-year Sharpe of 0.61, balancing volatility with compelling growth potential.
• VaR threshold of 89%: The model shows an 89% probability that €152,100 will be exceeded after 6 years, confirming robust protection against losses.
• Standard Deviation 38.9 %: Moderate volatility relative to comparable sealed Pokémon boxes, ensuring stability within the collectible asset class.
• Risk Rating “B (7.2/10)”: Balanced risk/return profile supported by proven sales activity (46 data points) and sustained liquidity in high-end sealed displays.

Exit Options at Maturity 🚪

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We will manage the exit strategy on behalf of our investors, ensuring the best possible outcome based on market conditions at the time. Depending on the value of the card and the prevailing market situation, we can either sell the card privately to a collector or take it to auction. Both options are carefully considered, and we will choose the one that maximizes the return for our investors.

Why Invest in This Category? 🧢

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Investing in Pokémon cards is particularly timely with the franchise’s upcoming jubilee, expected to drive heightened interest and value appreciation in rare and nostalgic collectibles.

Why Invest in This Asset? 💎

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The Pokémon Aquapolis Booster Box stands out as a premier sealed collectible from the e-Card era, renowned for its innovation, aesthetic quality, and deep nostalgic appeal. Released in 2003 as the second e-Card expansion and the 15th Pokémon TCG set, Aquapolis introduced groundbreaking elements such as Crystal Pokémon—rare cards featuring multiple energy types—and the Dot-Code system, which allowed players to scan cards for mini-games and unique data interactions.

From a collector’s standpoint, Aquapolis embodies a transition between traditional TCG gameplay and early digital experimentation, making it a significant milestone in Pokémon’s evolution. The set’s expansive 186-card lineup, including holograms, secret rares, and alternate versions, was the largest of its time, amplifying its desirability. The sealed booster box, containing 36 original packs, provides one of the last opportunities to preserve or potentially unlock these historic cards in untouched condition.

The market for vintage Pokémon displays has remained consistently strong. Aquapolis boxes benefit from sustained demand driven by scarcity—most have been opened for grading or absorbed into long-term private collections. Between February and October 2025, 30 sales of comparable boxes confirmed active market liquidity and continued collector enthusiasm. The expert’s pricing validation—1.8x pack premium yet 6% below current eBay listings—reflects a fair market entry supported by real data.

With a modeled Value at Risk indicating an 89% probability of exceeding its original €90,200 purchase price after six years, the Aquapolis Booster Box combines rare historical significance with credible downside protection, situating it as one of the few vintage displays offering both nostalgia and measurable market strength.

Conclusion 🎯

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The Pokémon Aquapolis Booster Box stands as both a rare historical collectible and a data-backed opportunity. With its strong track record, fair entry price, robust downside protection, and projected double-digit annualized return, it remains one of the few sealed displays combining scarcity, nostalgia, and verifiable market performance within a balanced risk framework.