LEGO Christmas Release

Valuation Summary 📝

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To ensure the competitiveness of the investment, we conducted a thorough verification of the purchase price by analyzing recent transactions and current market values on the secondary LEGO market. Our analysis confirmed that the offered price, inclusive of all associated fees, is still highly competitive. We used the historical performance data of these sets and considered the seasonal effect. For our conservative scenario, we assumed the value of the LEGO set would grow at the rate of Swiss inflation, reflecting a defensive approach. In the balanced scenario, we calculated the average sales price after handling, shipping, and distribution costs during the 2023 holiday season and annualized the difference to the purchase price to 1.5 years, assuming that we need two seasons to sell the sets off. Finally, in the ambitious scenario, we used the same basis as for the balanced scenario but assumed that we can sell off all sets within the first Christmas period.

Exit Options at Maturity 🚪

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We will manage the exit strategy on behalf of our investors and ensure the best possible outcome based on market conditions. We plan to sell the sets during the 2024 holiday season. Should not all sets be sold in the first holiday season, the remaining sets will be sold during the 2025 holiday season. We have already found a partner who will resell our sets at a favorable price.


Why Invest in This Category? 

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Investing in LEGO sets offers strong potential for returns due to their limited production runs, high collectibility, and consistent demand. Many LEGO sets, especially themed or limited-edition releases, appreciate in value when they are no longer produced, sometimes significantly. LEGO appeals to a wide range of buyers, from collectors to casual fans, ensuring a steady secondary market. Additionally, LEGO sets hold their value over time and often outperform traditional investments in terms of percentage growth. This makes them an attractive, low-risk option for investors seeking both short-term and long-term returns.

Why Invest in This Asset? 💎

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Investing in the LEGO Christmas Bundle, featuring the "Santa’s Sleigh" (40499) and "Christmas Tree" (40573) sets, is an attractive opportunity due to the proven price dynamics and strong seasonal demand. Historically, prices for such seasonal sets have remained stable, showing a predictable trend where prices bottom out in early October and then rise sharply until Christmas. The offered sets were purchased at a 35% discount compared to last year’s net selling price (after shipping and handling fees) during the holiday season. Given this discount, a short-term investment horizon can be targeted, with the first sets expected to sell soon, aiming to have all sets sold out by the end of the 2025 holiday season.

Context in Time ⏳

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Christmas sets like the LEGO "Santa’s Sleigh" and "Christmas Tree" are consistently in high demand during the holiday season due to their seasonal relevance and limited availability. These sets are ideal as gifts for collectors and casual buyers looking for something special for the holidays. The emotional connection to the Christmas theme enhances their appeal, and with production often limited to just a few years, they become even more desirable.

Conclusion 🎯

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In conclusion, investing in the LEGO Christmas Bundle offers a compelling opportunity due to the strong seasonal demand, limited availability, and favorable purchase price. Our thorough analysis confirms that this investment remains highly competitive, with potential for value growth across different scenarios. The predictable price dynamics of Christmas-themed sets, combined with the emotional appeal and high collectibility, increase the likelihood of strong returns. Whether aiming for a short-term or longer-term investment horizon, the LEGO Christmas Bundle provides a balanced, low-risk investment opportunity with significant potential for value appreciation, especially with a view to the holiday seasons through 2025.