Five precedents - Schnabel, Condo, Brown, Scharf, and Guston - map the paths a speculative art-market cycle can take, and why Willem and McCormick have not yet completed one.
Julian Schnabel - the closest market-cycle parallel
Julian Schnabel became one of the most visible painters of the 1980s boom. When the art market collapsed around 1990, both his reputation and prices fell sharply: works that could command roughly $500,000-$600,000 in the mid-1980s reportedly sold for about half that in the mid-1990s. He continued producing and exhibiting rather than abandoning his practice.
His position later recovered. Christie's set his auction record at $1.45 million in 2017 for Ethnic Type #14 (1984), Pace presented new paintings in New York in 2023, and Guild Hall mounted a substantial exhibition in 2024.
Parallel: fashionable figurative painter -> speculative boom -> market and critical backlash -> long consolidation -> renewed respect.
George Condo - the closest institutional comeback
George Condo was successful in the 1980s but found New York dealers largely indifferent when he returned from Europe in 1995. He has said interest was revived partly by younger painters such as Cecily Brown and John Currin, who openly acknowledged his influence.
The recovery has been substantial: the New Museum presented a career survey in 2011, a 2024 Christie's painting sold for $1.26 million, and the Musee d'Art Moderne de Paris staged a roughly 200-work retrospective from October 2025 to February 2026 - the first Condo retrospective in France in thirty years.
Parallel: a highly distinctive, recognisable visual language becomes unfashionable, but later generations make it relevant again.
Cecily Brown - a partial but useful comparison
Cecily Brown experienced enormous attention during the pre-2008 contemporary-art boom. Her case is not a clear career collapse - she retained strong gallery support - but her trajectory shows how an artist can outlast broader market volatility and become institutionally stronger after the speculative phase.
She received her first full New York museum survey at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in 2023 and a major mid-career retrospective at the Barnes Foundation in 2025. Sotheby's records several works selling between approximately $6.1 million and $6.8 million from 2018 to 2023.
Parallel: early commercial excitement eventually gives way to a more durable combination of museum support, critical attention, and high-value sales.
Kenny Scharf - cultural rediscovery after a long eclipse
Kenny Scharf rose alongside Keith Haring and Jean-Michel Basquiat in the 1980s but, unlike those artists, lacked a career-defining solo institutional exhibition for decades. His bright, humorous, immediately readable imagery also makes him aesthetically relevant as a comparison with Willem and McCormick.
In 2024-25, the Brant Foundation presented roughly 70 paintings and sculptures in his first major New York institutional survey, framing his career as one containing several highs and comebacks.
Parallel: accessible imagery initially dismissed as too commercial or cartoon-like can later be reconsidered as culturally significant.
Philip Guston - the ultimate reputational comeback
Philip Guston's 1970 return from abstraction to cartoon-like figuration was attacked by critics and regarded by some peers as a betrayal, seriously damaging his contemporary reputation.
Those same late paintings are now regarded as his most influential work. The National Gallery of Art and Tate Modern mounted a major travelling retrospective covering more than 150 works, describing him as one of America's most influential modern artists.
Parallel: maintaining a personal style through rejection can eventually produce greater historical importance than following current taste.
Best matches for Willem and McCormick
- Julian Schnabel is the best precedent for an auction-driven boom, substantial correction, and later recovery.
- George Condo is the best precedent for remaining committed to a recognisable figurative language until institutions and a younger generation reassess it.
- Kenny Scharf is particularly relevant aesthetically: colourful, optimistic, and accessible paintings can survive a period when the art establishment views them as overly commercial.
The important limitation
Willem and McCormick have not yet completed this cycle. Their situation currently looks more like:
rapid discovery -> auction acceleration -> price normalisation
rather than:
established career -> collapse -> completed comeback
The historical examples suggest that a durable recovery usually comes from museum exhibitions, controlled supply, influential collections, and continued artistic development - not merely from auction prices returning to their previous peaks.
