How We Select and Exit Assets: Inside Our Rule-Based Investment Strategy 🔍📊

One of the most common questions we get at Splint Invest is:
“How do you decide which assets to buy, and when to sell them?”

The answer is simple — but not random:
We follow a rule-based investment and exit strategy designed to combine expert insights, data-driven models, and transparent processes.

Monthly Investment Planning

Each month, we define our investment strategy. We decide:

• Which categories (e.g., art, wine, sneakers) to focus on
• How much capital to allocate

This plan is guided by current market data, macroeconomic trends, and our own observations.

Sourcing Assets Through Experts

With a clear plan in place, we activate our network of trusted experts, asking them to submit potential investment opportunities and price quotes.

Standardized Asset Evaluation

Every proposed asset goes through several critical checks:

Purchase Price Evaluation

We only consider assets that are fairly priced relative to market conditions.
Our price strategy adapts to market dynamics:

• Oversupply: Aim to buy at about 10% below market value
• Balanced supply & demand: Target a price slightly below market (~2%)
• High demand: Accept fair market value, may pay a small premium for competitive assets

We determine fair value using a three-level framework:

• Level 1: Transparent prices from identical assets (wine, handbags, watches)
• Level 2: No identical assets but valuation models exist (art, classic cars)
• Level 3: No models—rely on comparable recent trades and expert input (trading cards, Pokémon booster boxes)

Future Value Potential

We simulate defensive, balanced, and ambitious scenarios using historical data.
If the defensive case is still profitable, the asset passes.

Risk Quantification Model

We use a structured A–D risk rating system based on five key metrics:

• Standard Deviation
• Value-at-Risk (VaR)
• Sharpe Ratio
• Track Record
• Number of Open Offerings (market saturation)

Each metric is scored against defined thresholds, and a weighted average produces the overall risk grade:

• A = Low risk
• B = Moderate risk
• C = Elevated risk
• D = High risk (excluded)

Assets rated A–C may be released if the investment case is compelling. Assets rated D are typically excluded to protect investors from high volatility or low-quality offerings.

Quality & Provenance Check

We only consider assets that meet standards for authenticity, condition, and traceable origin:

• Wine must be stored professionally under optimal conditions
• Artworks require documented ownership history
• Cars must have verified ownership and maintenance records

This ensures assets can be resold with confidence and legal clarity.

Setting the Exit Strategy

Upon investment, we define:

• The expected investment horizon (e.g., 2 to 3 years)
• Three value scenarios: Defensive, Balanced, Ambitious

These aren’t just forecasts—they form the rules for when and how we exit.

Monthly Revaluation

We re-evaluate every asset monthly.
Until the planned exit window opens, we hold the asset—unless exceptional events occur (e.g., price spikes or auction trends).
If we're already in the ambitious range, we may exit early.

Exit Windows: When We Act

Once the exit window opens, our actions follow clear rules:

• If value is ambitious or balanced → we sell automatically (no investor vote needed)
• If value is below expectations → we hold until the window closes
• After the window ends → we may sell even at a negative return if necessary for capital efficiency and risk control

If an asset drops 25%+ below its purchase price outside the exit window, we reassess recovery potential.
If outlook is weak, we ask investors:
Would you prefer to realize the loss now, or hold and wait for a recovery?
This ensures joint decision-making during challenging market moments.

Outside the Rules? Investors Decide.

If we ever want to act outside the predefined strategy, we don’t do it alone.
We run a poll, and the majority of co-owners vote on what happens next.

Why This Matters

Through these steps, we ensure every decision is made with structure and discipline—not emotion.
This process ensures we don’t chase hype or follow gut feelings.
Instead, we rely on expertise, consistency, and transparency.
It’s how we turn a complex asset class into a professional and trusted investment experience.
If you’ve ever wondered how we make these decisions—now you know.
It’s not a black box.
It’s rule-based investing.